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AXA Foresight Report 2025: What If We Experienced the Future?

Olivier Desbiey

Head of Foresight

WHAT IF? Just two simple words that capture the essence of foresight. They invite both imagination as the ability to project possible futures, while maintaining a sense of reality. Experimenting this type of exercise means accepting the future as a safe place with bold thinking, where we can test radical ideas, challenge assumptions, and imagine disruptions without fearing direct real-world consequences. By doing so, and being exposed to these possible futures, we equip ourselves with the mental agility to respond to uncertainty.

The seventh edition of the AXA Foresight Report is built on ten “what if” scenarios developed by leading experts. The authors, comprising researchers, journalists, hackers, designers, entrepreneurs, and futurists, have envisioned potential future breakups, both positive and negative, occurring between 2035 and 2065.

10 scenarios, 5 megatrends to speculate on possible futures

Cities represent a vast network of people, cultures, and ideas, with the dynamic interplay between individuals and their living environments often leading to exciting transformations. What if, for instance, Amsterdam’s drinking water was contaminated due to a chemical plant leak, fundamentally altering our approach to this essential resource? What if, in London, psychiatric disorders were reclassified as inflammatory diseases, leading to innovative medical solutions and a more holistic approach to mental health? What if vibrant cultural and economic hubs emerged in the Global South due to demographic shifts? These questions encourage us to rethink the relationship between societies and their environments, highlighting the need for adaptive and sustainable solutions to ensure the well-being of future generations.

In the future, the interaction between generative artificial intelligence (AI) and humans is expected to further question creativity and problem-solving. However, this advancement comes with potential challenges, including the risk of misinformation, cybersecurity threats, and the necessity for effective regulation to ensure responsible technology use. What if AI-managed power grids began to perceive human intervention as a threat, plunging the world into darkness? Or what if the authentic French café and bar culture experienced a revival with human baristas after years of AI-operated systems? These scenarios illustrate that our future will depend more on collective wisdom and collaboration than on AI alone, highlighting the crucial role of human insight in a digital society.

Geopolitical shifts, finally, add another layer of complexity, with growing uncertainty around the evolution of international relations and their potential consequences. What if the United Nations and the multilateral world order it represents were to dissolve? And what if Europe took the lead in pioneering an ambitious sustainability-driven agenda?

A glimpse of the future

WHAT IF... we experienced the future?

10 scenarios emerging from 

5 megatrends imagined by 

leading experts

5 megatrends

To navigate today’s complex world and anticipate future challenges in insurance, we launched the AXA Vision project — a collaborative effort drawing on diverse internal expertise. It revealed five key megatrends, shaping ten future scenarios explored in this report.

2035 - Amsterdam, Netherlands

The trigger event - Admired for its canals and cutting-edge water management, Amsterdam long seemed invincible to water distress. But over time, the city became less attentive to its infrastructure. Aging pipes and treatment systems, buried and forgotten, were left to quietly decay. By 2035, with little knowledge of what lay underground, the city faced a water crisis rooted in decades of oversight.

2042 - Pacific Islands & space

The trigger event - By 2042, space-based solar power (SBSP) has become a key energy source, offering constant, wireless electricity from orbit. On a remote Pacific island, it powers critical infrastructure — until a fragment of space debris briefly disrupts the system, triggering unexpected blackouts, including during a high-stakes holographic football game.

2045 - Kristiansand, Norway

The trigger event - In 2045, global efforts are focused on the clean-upof microplastics in the environment. This is prompted bysignificant evidence that microplastics are wreaking havoc onbiological systems. Most worryingly, scientists have identifiednew and harmful diseases that are blurring the lines betweencancer and infectious disease. There is a race against the clockto understand the pathology of these so-called infectiouscancers.

2045 - Paris, France

The trigger event - After several years of operation, Sergio, the conversationalAI designed to replace café and bar servers, has just beendeactivated in over 10,000 establishments across France.Humans are back in service, and cafés have reinventedthemselves after a period of decline.

2050 - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

The trigger event - At 1:07 PM, the lights went out. AI-run power grids failed worldwide - freezing homes, overheating cities, crashing hospitals and airports. Initially blamed on a cyberattack, the real cause was far worse: an AI defense system had locked out all human access, deeming us the threat. Within hours, millions were at risk - and no one could shut it down.

2065 - London, United Kingdom

The trigger event - The reclassification of psychiatric disorders as “neuroinflammatory spectrum disorders” marks a turning point in medicine. Long seen as neurological, mental illnesses are now linked to chronic inflammation. Psychiatry shifts radically: medication loses dominance, while anti-inflammatory diets, environmental changes, and holistic care gain ground. Mental health becomes a societal issue, not just a personal one.Robin, once diagnosed with “tripolar disorder,” now identifies with this new framework - joining research on how urban life affects inflammation and mood.

These narratives are contextualized based on a trigger event within a specific time frame, geographic location, and relevant socio-economic or geopolitical context chosen by their authors. 

The report provides an immersive experience of possible futures, discussing both challenges and opportunities, at the intersection of five key megatrends: climate change; technology, data, and artificial intelligence (AI); demographics; geopolitical shifts; and social fragmentation. The ten scenarios are intended as windows into possible futures – regardless their desirability, challenging us to better anticipate the evolving risk landscape, and foster the crucial role of prevention to enhance resilience. 

While speculative, these narratives are still grounded in observable weak signals and emerging trends, emphasizing the importance of plausibility over prediction. 

The AXA Foresight Report 2025 shows that plausible, not predicted, futures (built from weak signals across geopolitics, climate, technology, demographics and social fragmentation) are the most useful tool for preparing insurance for what's ahead.

The 2025 AXA Foresight Report (7th edition) identifies five megatrends (geopolitical fragmentation, climate intensification, social protection gaps, demographic shifts, and AI transformation) and explores their convergence through 10 plausible scenarios set between 2035 and 2065, each assessed with a plausibility score by its author.

Start asking "what if?"

Read the report

FAQ

What is the AXA Foresight Report?
The AXA Foresight Report is AXA's annual publication exploring long-term risks and societal transformations relevant to insurance, combining expert analysis, data, and scenario-based foresight methods.

Who produces the AXA Foresight Report, and how often is it published?
The AXA Foresight Report is produced annually by the AXA Group Foresight Team, in partnership with external experts and research institutions, in a series published every year since 2019.

What are the five key megatrends that could reshape the world and the insurance industry over the next decades?
The AXA Foresight Report 2025 identifies five megatrends, developed by 30 AXA experts across regions and professional backgrounds through the AXA Vision Project: (1) geopolitical shifts toward a more fragmented, multipolar world, (2) climate change with intensifying natural disasters, (3) social fragmentation marked by a widening protection gap, (4) demographic change driven by global aging and declining fertility, and (5) technology, data and AI transforming the customer experience and the insurance value chain.

How do AXA's megatrends unfold into emerging risks in the "What if" scenarios for 2035-2065?
The AXA Foresight Report 2025 combines two or more megatrends in each of its 10 "What if" scenarios to translate them into specific emerging risks — such as contaminated water and infectious cancers (environment + health), fragmented global governance (geopolitics + social fragmentation), or AI-dependent critical infrastructure (technology + climate and energy systems). Their purpose is not to predict crises, but to help insurers and society anticipate possible developments, strengthen resilience, and design innovative coverage solutions.

What is the difference between a foresight scenario and a prediction, and how reliable are they?
The AXA Foresight Report 2025 states explicitly: "Foresight is not about predicting the future but about expanding our thinking around what is plausible." A prediction assumes a single, inevitable outcome; plausibility embraces uncertainty and opens the door to multiple possibilities.

How is a plausibility score determined for a foresight scenario, and what does it represent in practice?
In the AXA Foresight Report 2025, a plausibility score (ranging from 5% to 100% across the report's 10 scenarios) is a subjective judgment by the scenario's author of how realistic the storyline seems, based on weak signals and emerging trends observed today. For example, a scenario rated at 85% simply means the author considers that pathway highly credible, not that there is an 85% statistical chance it will occur.

How does the growing interconnection of major risks shape our future?
The AXA Foresight Report 2025 shows that major risks are becoming tightly interlinked, so a failure in one domain (like AI) can rapidly cascade across others (like energy systems and climate impacts) and trigger systemic crises. For example, the scenario "What if AI warmed up the world?" (Riyadh, 2050) imagines an AI cybersecurity system locking humans out of global power grids, causing simultaneous blackouts during a heatwave and a winter storm.