March 21, 2023
2023 Foresight Report
Risk: A mosaic of perceptions - Explores people’s perceptions of risks in a world of crisis
2 minutes
Marie Bogataj
AXA Research Fund & Group Foresight Director
Risk is becoming an increasingly complex notion with multifaceted effects. Its changing nature prompts questions about subjective risk perceptionby different social groups or individuals and how these perceptions might evolve in the future. By addressing the issue of risk perception this report sheds a new light on the sense of vulnerability across groups and geographies and informs the relevant types of protection and solutions that could be put in place in the future.
The individual perspective
Adopting a sociological perspective, our exploration starts with mapping risk perception at the individual level. Grounded from the Future Risk Survey by IPSOS, encompassing 19,000 respondents from the general population across 15 countries, the data reveals that a strong risk-taking attitude is positively associated with being a male, at young and middle-age (18 to 40 years old), receiving a higher income and higher education, living in larger households, and having children. In terms of perceived vulnerability, women and socially disadvantaged groups (population with lowerincome and education) tend to have a higher sense of vulnerability in everyday life.
The geographical perspective
The global trend between risk-taking and socio-demographic characteristics may vary from country to country, where there are also contrasting patterns in the feeling of vulnerability.
Based on analysis by a research team at Ecole NormaleSupérieure specialized in the Geopolitics of Risk, the report also provides a comparative analysis of differences in perception of major risks (e.g.: climate, energy, geopolitics) according to country and region. Itshows that concerns around a single topic can differ in neighboring countries or in different age groups.
The foresight perspective: Fear or not to fear
With contributions from our editorial partner Usbek et Rica, a French foresight magazine that explores the future, the report proposes three forward-looking scenarios on the stakeholder people trust in the future discussing therole of technology, communities, and trust third parties (e.g. public and private organizations)to provide protection.
As risks continue to evolve, so will the way society approaches and confronts them. Starting from the findings highlighted in this document, we imagined a few fictional scenes questioning how we’ll deal with risks in the decades to come.
Jump into our time machine and enjoy the ride!
To better inform decision making, the AXA Foresight Team contributes to the Group’s forward thinking by envisioning future-looking perspectives and related business insurance challenges.
