Risk is becoming an increasingly complex notion with multifaceted effects. Its changing nature prompts questions about subjective risk perceptionby different social groups or individuals and how these perceptions might evolve in the future. By addressing the issue of risk perception this report sheds a new light on the sense of vulnerability across groups and geographies and informs the relevant types of protection and solutions that could be put in place in the future.

Jump into our time machine

AXA Foresight Report 2023

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This fifth edition of the AXA Foresight Report is a data-driven publication grounded from the Future Risk Survey by IPSOS, focusing on how individuals (19,000 respondents) live and experience risk in everyday life across 15 countries.

2023 AXA Foresight Report

Research & Foresight

Adopting a sociological perspective, our exploration starts with mapping risk perception at the individual level. Grounded from the Future Risk Survey by IPSOS, encompassing 19,000 respondents from the general population across 15 countries, the data reveals that a strong risk-taking attitude is positively associated with being a male, at young and middle-age (18 to 40 years old), receiving a higher income and higher education, living in larger households, and having children. In terms of perceived vulnerability, women and socially disadvantaged groups (population with lowerincome and education) tend to have a higher sense of vulnerability in everyday life.  

The global trend between risk-taking and socio-demographic characteristics may vary from country to country, where there are also contrasting patterns in the feeling of vulnerability.

Based on analysis by a research team at Ecole NormaleSupérieure specialized in the Geopolitics of Risk, the report also provides a comparative analysis of differences in perception of major risks (e.g.: climate, energy, geopolitics) according to country and region. Itshows that concerns around a single topic can differ in neighboring countries or in different age groups. 

The foresight perspective: Fear or not to fear

With contributions from our editorial partner Usbek et Rica, a French foresight magazine that explores the future, the report proposes three forward-looking scenarios on the stakeholder people trust in the future discussing therole of technology, communities, and trust third parties (e.g. public and private organizations)to provide protection. 

As risks continue to evolve, so will the way society approaches and confronts them. Starting from the findings highlighted in this document, we imagined a few fictional scenes questioning how we’ll deal with risks in the decades to come. 

Jump into our time machine and enjoy the ride!

Grand Junction, Colorado, 2051 Dear visitors, I wish you the warmest welcome to Glenwood Park, known everywhere in North America (yes, including in Cleveland) as the most dangerous place! An adventure park of two million acres to camp, hike and practice all kinds of outdoor activities! I see that, as usual, most of today’s daredevils are young men, but I’m quite delighted to see that we also have some young ladies, as well as some guests whose hair is starting to turn gray. Here, as you may already know, there is no digital device, nor security cameras, no geolocalisation, no wearables: ladies and gentlemen, you are strictly off the grid!  Please don’t try to cheat, as this would cost you much. Yesterday, our excellent teams once again had to kick out a young chap who was trying to get in wearing connected contacts. A pity, knowing that our waiting list is currently… let me double check that… Yes, two years and eight months, no less! Here, dear visitors, you’re as free as birds. If you feel like hiking alone on our windy trails, full of razor sharp rocks, camping in our forest populated with angry brown bears, or even swimming in the dangerous waters of the Springfield river, please, be my guests, no one will stop you!  Now, of course this is all at your own risks, since no one would cover you and the park couldn’t be held responsible were some tragic event to fall onto you, dear visitors. Come on, please get in, and get ready for the riskiest week of your life in Glenwood Park!

The most dangerous place

Riyad, 2031 From security cameras to facial recognition and patrol robots, the Saudi government has, over the last few years, massively invested in digital technology, officially to fight criminality, but also to better monitor its population. However, the new technology deployed by the Riyad police goes one step further.  Using quantum data, it will give individuals a harmfulness score. Uttering threats, destroying material in an angry moment or getting into a fight will decrease one’s score, and lead the police to monitor him or her more closely. If one’s score goes under a certain level, one could even be deprived of certain rights, such as getting welfare, entering a mosque or working for the government.  Whilst this currently only applies to people who already had some issues with the law, human rights associations are claiming that this will soon be used against the population as a whole, and will provide the government with a new tool to crack down on dissent.  Arthur Mayer, for the Boston Globe

Big brother is watching you

Journal of Marie Dupond, Jakarta, March 7, 2042 I never liked flying, and this trip was no exception. Coffee was served way too hot and I was sitting near an English man who kept talking about the energy crisis and couldn’t understand why this didn’t make headlines more often in France, whilst our media kept talking about air pollution, which, according to him, is a secondary issue. Quite a character. He probably changed his mind now: air pollution is, indeed, quite bad here. At least it has helped me cut down on smoking.  The hotel I’m staying at is rather nice, although the food could definitely be better. I’ll be there for three weeks, enough time for my team and I to decide whether Jakarta, which has already been classified as a “hazardous weather area” since 2038, should now be categorized as a “dangerous weather area”. The International Commission for Assessing Climate Risks, which I belong to, evaluates how much a specific geographic zone is threatened by extreme weather events, in order to warn potential visitors regarding the different measures they have to take before and during their visit.  In these conflictual times, climate risks seem to be one of the only things on which every country in the world agrees, hence this commission. There was a typhoon here last month, and a third of the city is still underwater. The electricity has gone off three times already since I’ve been there. I should remember to mention this to my colleague Raymond, who told me how lucky I was to go for a three-week paid vacation in the sunshine…

Stormy weather

Washington D.C., 2065  Speech delivered by President Betty Garcia to the U.S. Congress on May 18th.  Dear Congress members,  Since the day I took office, I’ve made protection against cyber attacks a top priority for my administration, knowing very well how the enemies of the U.S., unable to challenge us militarily, are using cyberspace to wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure. Yesterday, I was unfortunately proven right, as an unidentified group of cyberterrorists managed to take control of our hunter satellite Hamilton, and used it to launch an attack from space on the city of New York.  Fortunately, the shield deployed by the Morris Administration 10 years ago, often nicknamed “Star Wars 2 Initiative”, held well and the missiles were all blown up in space by our counter defense system. The attack thus made only one victim, a 98 year-old man living in a retirement community in the Bronx who had a heart attack after being frightened by the explosions.  This tragic death, as well as the much greater disaster that we barely escaped, has only reinforced my determination to go against cyber crime. My administration will immediately start working on a new bill to significantly bolster our investment in cyberdefense to make sure that this kind of event can’t happen again in the future. Thank you very much.

Star wars

Santiago de Chile, 2038  - Good evening, you’re on TVN, Chile’s first TV channel, this is Martin Rojas and tonight I’m with doctor Perez. Good evening, doctor.  - Good evening, señor Rojas.  - You’re one of the world’s leading researchers when it comes to mental issues and I believe you’ve come to tell us about a new disorder that you’ve identified and that you believe is becoming more and more prevalent among young working adults…  - That’s correct. What my team and I have discovered is that, as a record number of young workers are freelancers who often combine two, three, even sometime four different part-time, fully remote jobs at a given time, some of them suffer from what appears to be a new kind of multiple personality disorder that we called “the dissociative worker’s trouble”.  - And what does that consist of, exactly?  - Well, it seems like being immersed in several virtual jobs at the same time tends to cut people from the realities of daily life and seek shelter in the virtual world. Most patients end up spending most of their time in their apartment, neglecting going out to meet friends, eat out or even buy groceries. With the most severe forms, some patients even tend to confuse reality and the virtual world. They don’t know what is real and what is not, which can have severe consequences, such as violent acts against themselves or other people.  - That’s frightening, indeed. Can that condition be cured?  - There’s no silver bullet, and for now we can only tell our patients to slow down at work and spend more time with their family and friends in the real world. However, we’re still early in our exploration of this disorder, and I’m sure we’ll come up with new insights and solutions soon.  - Thank you very much for your time, doctor Perez.  - Thanks for having me, señor Rojas.

Is this real life? Is this just fantasy?

Dear visitors, I wish you the warmest welcome to Glenwood Park, known everywhere in North America (yes, including in Cleveland) as the most dangerous place! An adventure park of two million acres to camp, hike and practice all kinds of outdoor activities! I see that, as usual, most of today’s daredevils are young men, but I’m quite delighted to see that we also have some young ladies, as well as some guests whose hair is starting to turn gray. Here, as you may already know, there is no digital device, nor security cameras, no geolocalisation, no wearables: ladies and gentlemen, you are strictly off the grid!  

Please don’t try to cheat, as this would cost you much. Yesterday, our excellent teams once again had to kick out a young chap who was trying to get in wearing connected contacts. A pity, knowing that our waiting list is currently… let me double check that… Yes, two years and eight months, no less! Here, dear visitors, you’re as free as birds. If you feel like hiking alone on our windy trails, full of razor sharp rocks, camping in our forest populated with angry brown bears, or even swimming in the dangerous waters of the Springfield river, please, be my guests, no one will stop you!  

Now, of course this is all at your own risks, since no one would cover you and the park couldn’t be held responsible were some tragic event to fall onto you, dear visitors. Come on, please get in, and get ready for the riskiest week of your life in Glenwood Park! 

From security cameras to facial recognition and patrol robots, the Saudi government has, over the last few years, massively invested in digital technology, officially to fight criminality, but also to better monitor its population. However, the new technology deployed by the Riyad police goes one step further.  

Using quantum data, it will give individuals a harmfulness score. Uttering threats, destroying material in an angry moment or getting into a fight will decrease one’s score, and lead the police to monitor him or her more closely. If one’s score goes under a certain level, one could even be deprived of certain rights, such as getting welfare, entering a mosque or working for the government.  

Whilst this currently only applies to people who already had some issues with the law, human rights associations are claiming that this will soon be used against the population as a whole, and will provide the government with a new tool to crack down on dissent.  

Journal of Marie Dupond, Jakarta, March 7, 2042 

I never liked flying, and this trip was no exception. Coffee was served way too hot and I was sitting near an English man who kept talking about the energy crisis and couldn’t understand why this didn’t make headlines more often in France, whilst our media kept talking about air pollution, which, according to him, is a secondary issue. Quite a character. He probably changed his mind now: air pollution is, indeed, quite bad here. At least it has helped me cut down on smoking.  

The hotel I’m staying at is rather nice, although the food could definitely be better. I’ll be there for three weeks, enough time for my team and I to decide whether Jakarta, which has already been classified as a “hazardous weather area” since 2038, should now be categorized as a “dangerous weather area”. The International Commission for Assessing Climate Risks, which I belong to, evaluates how much a specific geographic zone is threatened by extreme weather events, in order to warn potential visitors regarding the different measures they have to take before and during their visit.  

In these conflictual times, climate risks seem to be one of the only things on which every country in the world agrees, hence this commission. There was a typhoon here last month, and a third of the city is still underwater. The electricity has gone off three times already since I’ve been there. I should remember to mention this to my colleague Raymond, who told me how lucky I was to go for a three-week paid vacation in the sunshine… 

Speech delivered by President Betty Garcia to the U.S. Congress on May 18th.  

Since the day I took office, I’ve made protection against cyber attacks a top priority for my administration, knowing very well how the enemies of the U.S., unable to challenge us militarily, are using cyberspace to wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure. Yesterday, I was unfortunately proven right, as an unidentified group of cyberterrorists managed to take control of our hunter satellite Hamilton, and used it to launch an attack from space on the city of New York.  

Fortunately, the shield deployed by the Morris Administration 10 years ago, often nicknamed “Star Wars 2 Initiative”, held well and the missiles were all blown up in space by our counter defense system. The attack thus made only one victim, a 98 year-old man living in a retirement community in the Bronx who had a heart attack after being frightened by the explosions.  

This tragic death, as well as the much greater disaster that we barely escaped, has only reinforced my determination to go against cyber crime. My administration will immediately start working on a new bill to significantly bolster our investment in cyberdefense to make sure that this kind of event can’t happen again in the future. Thank you very much. 

- Good evening, you’re on TVN, Chile’s first TV channel, this is Martin Rojas and tonight I’m with doctor Perez. Good evening, doctor.  

- You’re one of the world’s leading researchers when it comes to mental issues and I believe you’ve come to tell us about a new disorder that you’ve identified and that you believe is becoming more and more prevalent among young working adults…  

- That’s correct. What my team and I have discovered is that, as a record number of young workers are freelancers who often combine two, three, even sometime four different part-time, fully remote jobs at a given time, some of them suffer from what appears to be a new kind of multiple personality disorder that we called “the dissociative worker’s trouble”.  

- And what does that consist of, exactly?  

- Well, it seems like being immersed in several virtual jobs at the same time tends to cut people from the realities of daily life and seek shelter in the virtual world. Most patients end up spending most of their time in their apartment, neglecting going out to meet friends, eat out or even buy groceries. With the most severe forms, some patients even tend to confuse reality and the virtual world. They don’t know what is real and what is not, which can have severe consequences, such as violent acts against themselves or other people.  

- That’s frightening, indeed. Can that condition be cured?  

- There’s no silver bullet, and for now we can only tell our patients to slow down at work and spend more time with their family and friends in the real world. However, we’re still early in our exploration of this disorder, and I’m sure we’ll come up with new insights and solutions soon.  

- Thank you very much for your time, doctor Perez.  

To better inform decision making, the AXA Foresight Team contributes to the Group’s forward thinking by envisioning future-looking perspectives and related business insurance challenges.

The AXA Group Foresight - Exploring possible futures to anticipate tomorrow’s challenges

The AXA Foresight Team contributes to the Group’s forward strategic thinking by providing future-looking perspectives and related business insurance challenges to better inform decision making.

The AXA Foresight Team contributes to the Group’s forward strategic thinking by providing future-looking perspectives and related business insurance challenges.

Exploring possible futures to anticipate tomorrow’s challenges

Foresight at AXA

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