2014 Emerging Risk Acumen: Key Findings

Leveraging on risk expertise

In 2014, AXA asked c. 200 internal experts to determine which emerging risks would have the highest impact on the society at large in the next 5 to 10 years. Based on their knowledge of a specific region and on their expertise in Risk Management, Underwriting & Claims, Marketing & Distribution, Legal, Finance and IT, they helped achieving two goals:

  • Prioritize AXA's efforts in anticipating and preparing for emerging risks
  • Share knowledge externally on the top 10 emerging risks according to AXA's experts

Key takeaways

29% of respondents estimate risks of economic and financial nature are those that will have the highest impact in the next 5 to 10 years. Social & political risks rank second (24% of respondents), followed by environmental, technological and medical risks (respectively 19%, 14% and 10% of respondents). 4% of respondents identified other risks.

Top 10 Emerging Risks for the next 5 to 10 years

Rank Overall category Risk
# 1 Economic & Financial # 1 Macro-Economic disruptions
# 2 Economic & Financial # 2 Mismanagement of public debt & budget deficit
# 3 Social & Political # 3 Social and political unrest
# 4 Social & Political # 4 Mismanagement of population aging and demographic changes
# 5 Environnemental # 5 Natural hazards
# 6 Social & Political # 6 Evolving terrorism
# 7 Economic & Financial # 7 Market risks
# 8 Social & Political # 8 Geopolitical imbalances
# 9 Environnemental # 9 Pollution
# 10 Technological & IT # 10 Cybercrime & cyber sabotage

Regional perspectives

When analyzed region by region, results present similarities for some emerging risks. Natural hazards appear in the top 5 for all regions. Some regional specificities also exist: cybercrime ranks first in the priorities established by respondents in North America, while it is mismanagement of public debt in Europe and social unrest in Asia.
Qualitative analysis

This exercise helped collecting about 1,800 verbatim that allowed for a thorough qualitative analysis of the results. IT risks are transversally quoted in verbatim on other risks, highlighting the interconnectedness of this risk with many other emerging risks.

A saga of 5 separate videos

Five experts react on categories of risk identified in the study, with the objective to raise awareness on emerging risks and explain AXA's role in view of new trends and opportunities.

The conclusions of the Emerging Risks Acumen are, as for any prospective study, subject to unknown risks and uncertainties that could lead to substantial differences from those expressed or implied in such statements. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. No duty to update: The company assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein.